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ICAO prepared economic impact analysis of COVID-19 on civil aviation

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The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) published information about Effects of Novel Coronavirus on Civil Aviation.

The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on world
scheduled passenger traffic for the full year 2020, compared to Baseline
(business as usual, originally-planned), would be:

  • Overall reduction ranging from 43% to 51% of seats offered by airlines
  • Overall reduction of 2,423 to 2,907 million passengers
  • Approx. USD 323 to 385 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines

International passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline

  • Overall reduction ranging from 55% to 65% of seats offered by airlines
  • Overall reduction of 1,214 to 1,422 million passengers
  • Approx. USD 216 to 253 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of
    airlines

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  • Air passenger traffic: An overall reduction of air passengers (both international and domestic)
    ranging from 50% to 60% in 2020 compared to 2019 (by ICAO)
  • Airports: An estimated loss of over 50% of passenger traffic and 57% or over USD 97 billion
    airport revenues in 2020 compared to business as usual (by ACI)
  • Airlines: A 54.7% decline of revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs, both international and
    domestic) in 2020 compared to 2019 (by IATA)
  • Tourism: A decline in international tourism receipts of between USD 910 to 1,170 billion in 2020, compared to the USD 1.5 trillion generated in 2019, with 100% of worldwide destinations having
    travel restrictions (by UNWTO)
  • Trade: A fall of global merchandise trade volume by between 13% and 32% in 2020 compared
    to 2019 (by WTO)
  • Global economy: A projected -4.9% to -5.2% contraction in world GDP in 2020, far worse than
    during the 2008–09 financial crisis (by IMF and World Bank)

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is a UN specialized agency, established by States in 1944 to manage the administration and governance of the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention). ICAO works with the Convention’s 193 Member States and industry groups to reach consensus on international civil aviation Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) and policies in support of a safe, efficient, secure, economically sustainable and environmentally responsible civil aviation sector.

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